NFL 2019 Week 6 Predictions

The biggest headline of week five is undoubtedly the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots remaining undefeated. Both Tom Brady and his former protege Jimmy Garoppolo sit atop the NFL with the number one and two ranked defenses. Garoppolo was not the only former Patriots backup to find success this weekend as Colts' quarterback Jacoby Brissett knocked off Patrick Mahomes and the previously undefeated Chiefs.


With three Belichickian system quarterbacks dominating in week five, week six brings an NFC North matchup for sole possession of first place. The BushLeagueSports game of the week could have gone to the 49ers vs. Rams or Texans vs. Chiefs. Even the Eagles and Vikings are a valid pick, but the Monday Night Football meeting between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers gets the honor.


Detroit Lions (2-1-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-1)

The Green Bay Packers lead series 100-72-7 but the Lions have a current 4-game win streak (via Sports Illustrated)

The Green Bay Packers enter Monday as the odds on favorite to win the NFC North division and finish with a victory against the Lions. Currently sitting at -4.5, FanDuel has the Packers heavily favored to defend home field and jump to 5-1 on the season.


We, on the other hand, like to take risks and are all in on the Detroit Lions. If not for a collapse in Arizona and a Patrick Mahomes fourth-quarter comeback, the Lions would be 4-0. The team is as close as it gets to almost being undefeated. While almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, Detroit has the best chance of beating the Packers on Monday.


Detroit currently has a four-game win streak over Green Bay, including two monumental wins at Lambeau Field. It is worth noting Aaron Rodgers only played in two of the games and only finished one due to injury.


Despite the tainted success, the Lions enter Monday with the league's eighth-ranked offense. The Lions passing offense is where the team flourishes by averaging 267 yards and over two touchdowns per game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is also having himself a career year with the seventh-highest QBR (102.6) and averaging eight yards per play.


The biggest reason for Stafford having such high numbers is due to the Lions offensive line. Allowing just seven sacks through week five, the Lions give up a sack on just five percent of their plays, placing them seventh in the league.

Matthew Stafford has totaled 1,122 yards, nine touchdowns and a 102.6 QBR (via Pride of Detroit)

If you can't tell yet, the Lions love the number seven, so let's hope it stays lucky for them on Monday.


Even when it comes to the running game, the Lions have Green Bay beat. This time not ranking seventh but the unlucky 13. Detroit averages 120.5 yards per game on the ground, thanks to Kerryon Johnson's team-leading 251 yards.



The passing game and rushing attack work hand-in-hand with both feeding off each other. Where Stafford fails, Johnson will pick up the slack. Unfortunately for Green Bay, Stafford has rarely failed this season.


Green Bay should not be overlooked despite Detroit's success. The Packers are on top of the division for reason having beat the Bears, Vikings, Eagles, and Cowboys. Focusing on the victory over the Cowboys, Green Bay's defense took care of business by picking off Dak Prescott three times and holding Ezekiel Elliott to under 70 rushing yards.


Even with a 4-1 record, and a what seems like a well-rounded team, Green Bay has been skating by.


The Packers have played the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and tenth ranked defenses in the NFL. In those games, the defense has carried Green Bay, as they should, but a closer examination shows a massive hole in Green Bay's offense.


Low-scoring games are expected when playing some of the league's best defenses, but scoring is not the issue. It is when Green Bay scores and how they score. Green Bay has been shutout in five quarters this season, which does not seem to lend any evidence to a negative outcome. When diving a little deeper, the Packers offense is entirely a first-half team lending opposing offenses opportunity for a comeback.

The Green Bay Packers defense has totaled 11 turnovers, giving them a +7 differential, tied for first place in the NFL (via Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

The Green Bay Packers have score 82 points in the first half compared to 37 in the second half. The Packers have also been held to three or fewer points in seven of their 10 second half quarters, five of those being in the final quarter.


The Detroit Lions, in one less game, outscored the Packers 44-37 in the second half. The Packers and Lions also average 24 points per game, meaning Detroit's odds to complete a fourth-quarter skyrocket, due to Green Bay's stagnant offense.


A combination of Aaron Rodgers being tied for 20th in touchdowns (6) and yards per play (7.2) and a 27th ranked third-down conversation percentage have the Packers on the verge of an upset.


Luckily for Rodgers, the Lions defense is awful, to say the least, ranking 27th in the NFL, 30th against the pass, and a below-average 20th against the run.


Verdict:

Monday will be a day for offenses, even the inconsistent ones. The Packers and Lions have seen success in different ways, one through defensive score-stopping ability, and one through a superb passing attack.


The question is, who's more reliable. The Lions know they have to score, but when looking at who Green Bay has played, the defense does not look as good as advertised. The Packers defense has held the first, 18th, 19th, 24th, and 30th ranked offenses to an average of 18 points per game with the Cowboys and Eagles putting up a combined 623 yards and five touchdowns against Green Bay's secondary.


The Packers simply cannot hold a passing quarterback down throughout the game, and it is only a matter of time before Detroit, coming off a bye week, steals a victory.


The Packers are also expected to without star receiver Davante Adam and safety Darnell Savage while the Lions' Mike Daniel is dealing with a foot injury.


Final Score: Lions 30, Packers 27


Week 6 Predictions:


Patriots (5-0) vs. Giants (2-3) - Patriots 34, Giants 13


Panthers (3-2) vs. Buccaneers (2-3) - Panthers 26, Bucs 23


Redskins (0-5) vs. Dolphins (0-4) - Redskins 23, Dolphins 20


Saints (4-1) vs. Jaguars (2-3) - Saints 27, Jaguars 23


Bengals (0-5) vs. Ravens (3-2) - Ravens 30, Bengals 17


Seahawks (4-1) vs. Browns (2-3) - Seahawks 27, Browns 20


Eagles (3-2) vs. Vikings (3-2) - Vikings 24, Eagles 20


Texans (3-2) vs. Chiefs (4-1) - Texans 27, Chiefs 26


Falcons (1-4) vs. Cardinals (1-3-1) - Falcons 23, Cardinals 20


49ers (4-0) vs. Rams (3-2) - 49ers 27, Rams 24


Titans (2-3) vs. Broncos (1-4) - Titans 23, Broncos 17


Cowboys (3-2) vs. Jets (0-4) - Cowboys 30, Jets 17


Steelers (1-4) vs. Chargers (2-3) - Chargers 26, Steelers 9


Bye Week: Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears

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